RPI Breakdown for the next 3 games
Posted By: Jon MacomberFebruary 23, 2006
Here's our RPI breakdown with a number of scenarios for the next 3 games.
1. We are 17-9 (not counting Ark-Monticello). We are 12-3 at home, 3-6 on the road, and 2-0 in neutral courts. With the Home/Road modifiers we are actually 13.4-7.8. We have a winning record on the road (4.2-3.6).
2. Our SOS will definitely go up in the next 3 games (VIL, SH, WVU are 54-19 - 74%). How much is hard to figure - there are lots of combinations that affect our SOS, and our opp. SOS. depends on their opponents. Basically, we want all our past opponents to do well (maybe not Xavier, but that's another story...). Anyway, we currently have the 6th best SOS - For this analysis I'm going to use the 4th place SOS as a rough estimate of what we can expect, anything better is a bonus.
3. I used the numbers from Kenpom.com this morning, counting last night's games. Fresh off the presses.
4. This is just for the regular season and what our RPI will look like going into the conference tournament. Remember, although our SOS will probably rise in tournament play (strong opponents), our RPI may actually go down if we don't win a couple. For example, even going 1-1 hurts our RPI, because that's only .500 ball.
Here's the breakdown:
The rank is how we would stand now. Obviously that's a dynamic measure and won't necessarily hold up - teams will win, lose, rise, and fall - and the corresponding rank will vary. But the RPI should loosely correspond to that rank. Again, this is usingan estimatedSOS of the current 4th place team. That could change.
Obviously 3-0 or 2-1 locks us in. 1-2 still puts us in nice territory, but puts pressure on us for the BE tournament. It's hard to predict RPI into the tournaments at this point becauseofmatchups and upsets. For the doom-sayers - it looks like a first round loss will drop us about 6 slots, but that's a rough guess at this point.
Of course this is just an RPI analysis - there's a lot more the committee looks at. Anyway, we know what we have to do. Win a few more and we shouldn't have any worries.
Jon M
1. We are 17-9 (not counting Ark-Monticello). We are 12-3 at home, 3-6 on the road, and 2-0 in neutral courts. With the Home/Road modifiers we are actually 13.4-7.8. We have a winning record on the road (4.2-3.6).
2. Our SOS will definitely go up in the next 3 games (VIL, SH, WVU are 54-19 - 74%). How much is hard to figure - there are lots of combinations that affect our SOS, and our opp. SOS. depends on their opponents. Basically, we want all our past opponents to do well (maybe not Xavier, but that's another story...). Anyway, we currently have the 6th best SOS - For this analysis I'm going to use the 4th place SOS as a rough estimate of what we can expect, anything better is a bonus.
3. I used the numbers from Kenpom.com this morning, counting last night's games. Fresh off the presses.
4. This is just for the regular season and what our RPI will look like going into the conference tournament. Remember, although our SOS will probably rise in tournament play (strong opponents), our RPI may actually go down if we don't win a couple. For example, even going 1-1 hurts our RPI, because that's only .500 ball.
Here's the breakdown:
- Win Out (3-0) RPI=.6199 18th place 7-3 last10
- Finish 2-1 (lose SH) RPI=.6105 20th place 6-4 last 10
- Finish 2-1 (win SH) RPI=.6083 22nd place6-4 last 10
- Finish 1-2 (lose SH) RPI=.5989 34th place 5-5 last 10
- Finish 1-2 (win SH) RPI=.5975 34th place 5-5 last 10
- Lose out (0-3) RPI=.5880 42nd place4-6 last 10
The rank is how we would stand now. Obviously that's a dynamic measure and won't necessarily hold up - teams will win, lose, rise, and fall - and the corresponding rank will vary. But the RPI should loosely correspond to that rank. Again, this is usingan estimatedSOS of the current 4th place team. That could change.
Obviously 3-0 or 2-1 locks us in. 1-2 still puts us in nice territory, but puts pressure on us for the BE tournament. It's hard to predict RPI into the tournaments at this point becauseofmatchups and upsets. For the doom-sayers - it looks like a first round loss will drop us about 6 slots, but that's a rough guess at this point.
Of course this is just an RPI analysis - there's a lot more the committee looks at. Anyway, we know what we have to do. Win a few more and we shouldn't have any worries.
Jon M
